Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and one of the best-known proponents of a macroeconomic approach to analysing the crypto market, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects in 2026. However, his forecast cannot be reduced to a specific BTC price target. Hayes’s main idea is that Bitcoin’s long-term performance depends primarily on global liquidity, US monetary policy, and conditions in the government debt market. For this reason, he often analyses the actions of the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury more closely than events taking place directly within the crypto industry.
During 2026, this concept received an important addition. Hayes acknowledged that an increase in the amount of money in the financial system does not automatically mean that Bitcoin will rise: capital may flow into other areas. One such area has been the massive investment boom surrounding artificial intelligence. It is precisely the combination of dollar liquidity, the US debt market, and potential changes in capital flows that now forms the basis of his new scenario for BTC.
Why Liquidity Remains the Main Factor
Hayes’s model is based on a relatively simple relationship. Bitcoin has a limited supply, while the amount of dollars in the financial system can increase. When the government and central bank create conditions for liquidity expansion, some of the additional capital flows into financial assets. In such a situation, BTC gains an advantage as a global asset whose supply cannot be increased in response to rising demand.
Hayes has used liquidity to explain Bitcoin’s relatively weak performance during certain periods. If the cost of money remains high, government bond yields are attractive, and access to financing is restricted, investors are less inclined to increase their positions in risky assets. The opposite situation arises when financial conditions ease: capital becomes cheaper, while demand for equities, cryptocurrencies, and other assets may increase.
Therefore, Hayes does not consider the halving, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, or individual crypto market events to be the sole causes of BTC’s long-term growth. They can influence demand, but according to his logic, a much broader source of capital is required for a major move.
AI Has Changed Hayes’s Previous Model
One of the most interesting changes in his position in 2026 is related to artificial intelligence. Previously, the relationship between monetary expansion and Bitcoin in Hayes’s reasoning appeared almost direct: additional liquidity emerges, and demand for scarce assets increases. However, events in recent years have shown that there is another factor between these stages — where exactly the new money is directed.
Hayes has drawn attention to the enormous spending by the technology sector on AI infrastructure. Data centres, computing capacity, energy infrastructure, and equipment require hundreds of billions of dollars in investment. As a result, a significant share of available capital has been concentrated specifically in the AI sector rather than in Bitcoin.
This has allowed Hayes to explain a situation in which the money supply increases while BTC reacts much more weakly than expected. His updated model is therefore more complex: it is not enough to determine the amount of liquidity — it is also necessary to understand where it is flowing.
Why the US Bond Market Matters for Bitcoin
Another key element of the forecast is US government debt. The US government needs to borrow new funds regularly and refinance its existing obligations. The higher Treasury yields are, the more expensive it becomes to service the debt and the greater the pressure on public finances.
This is where Hayes sees a potential source of new liquidity. If high borrowing costs begin to create systemic problems, financial authorities have to look for ways to stabilise the market. These may include interest rate cuts, changes to the structure of government securities issuance, Treasury operations or, in a more radical scenario, measures resembling yield curve control.
For Bitcoin, the outcome is what matters: if supporting the financial system requires increasing the amount of dollars or making money cheaper, the attractiveness of scarce assets may potentially increase. This is why Hayes closely follows the Treasury market — for him, developments there may prove significantly more important than short-term news from the crypto industry.
How Much Bitcoin Growth Hayes Expects
During 2026, several BTC price targets have been associated with Hayes’s name, so it is important not to confuse them. He has considered scenarios in which Bitcoin could move towards approximately $125,000 and, in the event of stronger monetary expansion, significantly higher, potentially reaching $250,000. Separately, there is his long-term concept of Bitcoin reaching $1 million, which he associates not exclusively with 2026 but with a longer process of fiat currency depreciation and money supply expansion.
Hayes’s forecast is therefore better understood as a set of scenarios:
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a gradual improvement in liquidity creates conditions for a moderate continuation of BTC’s growth;
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large-scale monetary stimulus could lead to a much stronger revaluation of Bitcoin;
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potential problems in the debt market or the overheated AI sector could accelerate a shift towards looser financial policy;
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persistently high interest rates and tight financing conditions, by contrast, would limit BTC’s potential.
Thus, a specific price target is a consequence of a macroeconomic scenario rather than a standalone forecast.
Could an AI Crisis Become a Catalyst for BTC?
A potential revaluation of the AI sector occupies a special place in Hayes’s new concept. Enormous investments in data centres and computing infrastructure assume that companies’ future revenues will justify today’s spending. If this does not happen, some projects may face financial difficulties, while investors may begin reassessing the value of technology assets.
For Bitcoin, such a scenario would not necessarily be positive initially. During a serious market correction, investors usually reduce risk and sell liquid assets, meaning BTC could also come under pressure. However, Hayes is interested in the next stage — the response of financial authorities to the crisis. If the problems become significant enough to require new monetary support, additional liquidity could subsequently flow into the cryptocurrency market.
This is why AI simultaneously acts in his model as a competitor to Bitcoin for capital today and as a potential source of conditions for the next cycle of monetary stimulus in the future.
What Could Disrupt Hayes’s Forecast
The main weakness of this model is that an increase in liquidity does not guarantee that money will flow specifically into Bitcoin. Capital may remain in the technology sector, move into gold, equities, or other instruments. In addition, high inflation limits the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates quickly and pursue aggressive stimulus.
Therefore, several conditions must coincide for the most optimistic scenario to materialise: the financial system must receive additional liquidity, pressure from high interest rates must decrease, and investors must once again increase demand for scarce and risky assets.
What Arthur Hayes’s Forecast Is Ultimately Based On
Hayes’s new forecast for Bitcoin in 2026 is not based on yet another cryptocurrency cycle, but on structural problems within the global financial system. He links BTC’s prospects to US public debt, the cost of servicing that debt, the actions of the Treasury and the Fed, the volume of dollar liquidity, and the direction in which newly created capital is flowing.
The key shift in his position lies in the recognition that the formula ‘more money = higher Bitcoin prices’ is insufficient. The AI boom has demonstrated that vast amounts of capital can be absorbed by another sector. Therefore, it is now not only the volume of the money supply that is key, but also the flow of money between markets: additional liquidity can support investors’ purchases of Bitcoin, but only if capital is actually channelled into cryptocurrency assets rather than being concentrated in other segments of the economy.
As a result, Hayes’s optimism regarding Bitcoin remains high, but his forecast is effectively conditional: the more US financial authorities are forced to support the debt market and the economy with additional liquidity, the greater, according to his model, the potential for BTC. It is this macroeconomic mechanism, rather than any specific price figure, that one should keep an eye on in order to understand the logic behind his forecast.
